Saturday, December 18, 2010

Ireland v Moody's and the Bunjee Rope

How right were  S+P and Moody's when they recently downgraded Ireland's soverign rating ?

How right were they in 2007 when they increased Ireland's rating to AAA

Wrong in both cases would be my guess.  Will I buy the proposed Government pension bonds coming out in January -- maybe.

Why did Moody's and co get Ireland so wrong.

Both in 2007 and now there are several parrellels

In either case, they have little real perception of whats going on in Ireland -

Our figures are always released late - so they draw their conclusions on limited information

They have no real factual knowledge of how a small open economy operates - of course we are subject to the swings and round abouts of our trading partners.

We can be caterpulted up by our partners but on a bunjee rope -- this is they point the miss.

Ireland  is tied to our trading partners by the Bunjee Rope -- so we go can go down and down but remember how the guy at the end of the rope comes back up very radidly ( of course not all the away - this is just an analogy -- silly )

Then they listen to the glass half empty or half full heads - hear the wobegone stories and from their desks downtown in Manhattan or the city in London - they come to the wrong conclusions.

Ask yourself why - if they were so massively wrong 3 years ago -- they could be right now ?

Wait for the Bungee to return -- its on its way.

Be a member of Irelands glass nearly full and ignore the other saddos.

Have a look at what our kids will have to leave behind if we dont start thinking positively

Skellig Island  
Have a look at Skellig Island

Click above to view

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